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13 for the first time since 2007, with the two-year yield surpassing the 10-year yield by one basis point. 14 reached an all-time low of 2.053 percent, on fears about a sustained economic slowdown. The tit-for-tat nature of the trade war has firms feeling uncertain about the future. “When you have businesses and consumers who feel less confident about the future, they have a lower propensity to spend.They’ve reportedly delayed investments and – in some cases – hiring, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out during the Fed’s post-meeting news conference on July 31. That’s when we start to see a contraction in growth.” There’s no shortage of studies out there.

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The Conference Board, a research and business membership association, publishes its own gauge.When businesses hire temporary workers, it could indicate that they’re not as confident about the future of the economy.Both of those measures have remained fairly consistent, though it edged down to the lowest level since Sept.On May 23, however, the spread inverted again, and it’s stayed that way since (though briefly reverting on July 23). The conflict officially started in July 2018, when 25 percent tariffs took effect on billion worth of goods. You see weak investment, you see weak manufacturing,” Powell said.The two-year, 10-year curve, a spread that financial markets take even more seriously, inverted on Aug. But since then, it’s escalated, with 25 percent tariffs now in place on an additional 0 billion worth of products. “With trade tensions — which do seem to be having a significant effect on financial market conditions and on the economy — they evolve in a different way, and we have to follow them.” It’s worth following sentiment if you’re trying to predict what the economy will look like in the future, says Peter Donisanu, investment strategy analyst at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. You build up so much pessimism about the economy that activity stops,” he says.

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